The commodity trade split in two
The 18 October edition examines diverging paths for oil and precious metals, and reviews the implications for the company watchlist.
Read 18 October (PDF)BY MICHAEL SHENHER · MDS CAPITAL INC.
The Long Look
Positioning six months to two years out.
Most market commentary explains the headline. The Long Look asks what happens after it—and which established businesses may be affected by the world taking shape around them.
Free weekly research. No stock promotion. No buy/sell recommendations.
WEEK OF 25 OCTOBER 2026
The war moved from the strait
to the wellhead.
The 25 October issue examines the shift from oil transit risks to production risks, revisits the defence thesis after earnings, and tracks pressure on metals and AI-related power names. It includes updated company rankings and an explicit review of what the previous analysis got wrong.
Read the full issue (PDF)Data in this issue is dated as of the close of 23 October 2026. See the full issue for sources and qualifications.
THE LONG LOOK ARCHIVE
Previous issues
The Fed moved once. The bond market moved everything else.
A review of bond yields, discount rates and the changing company rankings.
Read 12 October (PDF)THE RESEARCH METHOD
Start with the world.
Then connect the evidence.
AI helps gather, screen, compare, challenge and cross-reference a breadth of information that would once have required a sizeable research operation. Human judgment remains central. AI expands the research; it does not predict the market.
“I have seen plenty of market publications. I have not seen another freely available publication approach the market quite this way.”Michael Shenher
Broad coverage. Disciplined entry.
Companies on the major U.S. and Canadian exchanges, with no sector automatically excluded. Companies generally need at least US$1B in market capitalization, three years as a public company and five covering analysts.
A promotion screen separates earnings, contracts and fundamental developments from moves that appear driven primarily by marketing. No IPO chasing, shells or story-stage companies.
Look where the forces intersect.
- Monetary policy and rates: central banks, inflation, currencies and policy calendars.
- Commodities and geopolitics: energy, metals, wars, shipping and supply constraints.
- Government and legislation: tariffs, trade, critical minerals, defence and project approvals.
- Political capital flows — monitored context: disclosed U.S. congressional trading and related legislation. This is monitored context rather than a weighted input; the 12 October edition explains its demotion to a footnote.
- Sell-side consensus: published analyst ratings, targets, revisions and estimate freshness.
Solidity first. Potential return second.
Business Solidity: an in-house 1–10 assessment of balance sheet strength, asset or reserve life, jurisdiction, free-cash conversion and management record.
Potential Return: the gap between market price and published 12-month analyst consensus. An analytical comparison—not a promised outcome.
What would break this?
Every thesis must identify the evidence or events that could invalidate it. When a thesis breaks or completes, the change is explained visibly. The objective is to follow the evidence, not defend last week’s conclusion.
INDEPENDENCE IS PART OF THE PRODUCT
More evidence.
Your own judgment.
We don’t sell stocks. We don’t promote stocks. We don’t tell readers what to buy. The value is broader context, competing evidence, identifiable risks and better questions.
The Long Look is research and information gathering only. It is not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Readers should conduct their own due diligence and consult their own professional advisers where appropriate.